Future babble: why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better

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In Future Babble, award-winning journalist. Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; it then plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe-we all know how that turned out. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet, every day we ask them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Here is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. How good you are at predicting the future doesn't depend on your education or experience. It depends on how you think: like a fox or like a hedgehog. Foxes know a little about a lot of things. They have doubts. They often sound wishy-washy. And you don't see them on television much. On the other hand, hedgehogs know a lot about one thing. They are absolutely certain. They are confident. Almost every popular expert you can think of is a hedgehog. And they are experts at explaining away predictions they made that turned out to be wrong. For real insight into what is coming next, you need to consult foxes and think like one, too. Future Babble explains in detail what that means, and how you can tell foxes and hedgehogs apart. In this example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious audio book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics in delivering this reassuring message: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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ISBN:
9780525952053
159659778
9781596597785
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Grouped Work ID 16d1cde4-a77f-c51c-b1d8-6e0ec11cd5e2
full_title future babble why expert predictions are next to worthless and you can do better
author gardner dan
grouping_category book
lastUpdate 2017-06-03 04:43:56AM

Solr Details

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auth_author2 Dixon, Walter.
author Gardner, Dan, 1968-
author-letter Gardner, Dan,
author2 Dixon, Walter., hoopla digital.
author2-role Dixon, Walter., hoopla digital.
author_additional Dan Gardner.
author_display Gardner, Dan
availability_toggle_catalog Available Now, Available Online, Entire Collection
available_at_catalog Huron Street
bisac_subject PHILOSOPHY / Logic, PSYCHOLOGY / Social Psychology
callnumber-a BF463.U5
callnumber-first B - Philosophy, Psychology, Religion
callnumber-subject BF - Psychology
callnumber_sort_catalog SOC SCI PSYCH
date_added 2010-10-04T06:00:00Z
days_since_added 2513
detailed_location_catalog Huron Street - Adult Nonfiction
display_description In Future Babble, award-winning journalist. Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; it then plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe-we all know how that turned out. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet, every day we ask them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Here is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. How good you are at predicting the future doesn't depend on your education or experience. It depends on how you think: like a fox or like a hedgehog. Foxes know a little about a lot of things. They have doubts. They often sound wishy-washy. And you don't see them on television much. On the other hand, hedgehogs know a lot about one thing. They are absolutely certain. They are confident. Almost every popular expert you can think of is a hedgehog. And they are experts at explaining away predictions they made that turned out to be wrong. For real insight into what is coming next, you need to consult foxes and think like one, too. Future Babble explains in detail what that means, and how you can tell foxes and hedgehogs apart. In this example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious audio book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics in delivering this reassuring message: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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lc_subject Fallacies (Logic), Perception, Thought and thinking, Uncertainty
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owning_library_catalog All Anythink Libraries
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physical 1 online resource (1 audio file (660 min.)) : digital., xi, 305 p. ; 24 cm.
popularity 2
primary_isbn 9780525952053
publishDate 2011
publishDateSort 2011
publisher Dutton,, Gildan Audio ,
rating 2.5
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subject_facet Fallacies (Logic), PHILOSOPHY / Logic, PSYCHOLOGY / Social Psychology, Perception, Thought and thinking, Uncertainty
table_of_contents The unpredictable world -- In the minds of experts -- The experts agree : expect much more of the same -- Unsettled by uncertainty -- Everyone loves a hedgehog -- When prophets fail -- The end is nigh.
target_audience Adult
target_audience_full Adult
title Future babble : why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better
title_display Future babble : why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better
title_full Future babble : why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better / Dan Gardner, Future babble : why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better [electronic resource] / Dan Gardner
title_short Future babble :
title_sort future babble why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better
title_sub why expert predictions are next to worthless, and you can do better
topic Fallacies (Logic), PHILOSOPHY / Logic, PSYCHOLOGY / Social Psychology, Perception, Thought and thinking, Uncertainty
topic_facet Fallacies (Logic), Perception, Thought and thinking, Uncertainty