The theory that would not die: how bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy

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"Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time."--
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9780300188226
9781452626857
9780300169690
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Grouped Work ID 84ba8c81-73a1-cdb2-8139-2b280d4c3b46
full_title theory that would not die how bayes rule cracked the enigma code hunted down russian submarines and
author mcgrayne sharon bertsch
grouping_category book
lastUpdate 2017-06-03 04:50:36AM

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auth_author2 Merlington, Laural.
author McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch.
author-letter McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch.
author2 Merlington, Laural., hoopla digital.
author2-role Merlington, Laural.|Narrator, hoopla digital.
author_additional Sharon Bertsch McGrayne.
author_display McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch
availability_toggle_catalog Available Now, Available Online, Entire Collection
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bisac_subject MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis, Mathematics / History & Philosophy, Science / History
callnumber-a QA279.5
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date_added 2010-11-23T07:00:00Z
days_since_added 2461
detailed_location_catalog Wright Farms - Adult Nonfiction
display_description "Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time."--
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id 84ba8c81-73a1-cdb2-8139-2b280d4c3b46
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language English
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oclc (OCoLC)670481486
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physical 1 online resource (1 audio file (720 min.)) : digital., xvi, 336 p. ; 24 cm.
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primary_isbn 9780300188226
publishDate 2011, 2012
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publisher Tantor Audio ,, Yale University Press,
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subject_facet Bayesian statistical decision theory -- History, MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis, Mathematics / History & Philosophy, Methode van Bayes, Political science, SCIENCE / History, Science / History
table_of_contents pt. 1. Enlightenment and the anti-Bayesian reaction -- Causes in the air -- The man who did everything -- Many doubts, few defenders -- pt. 2. Second World War era -- Bayes goes to war -- Dead and buried again -- pt. 3. The glorious revival -- Arthur Bailey -- From tool to theology -- Jerome Cornfield, lung cancer, and heart attacks -- There's always a first time -- 46,656 varieties -- pt. 4. To prove its worth -- Business decisions -- Who wrote The Federalist? -- The cold warrior -- Three Mile Island -- The Navy searches -- pt. 5. Victory -- Eureka! -- Rosetta stones -- Appendixes -- Dr. Fisher's casebook -- Applying Baye's Rule to mammograms and breast cancer.
target_audience Adult
target_audience_full Adult
title The theory that would not die : how bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy
title_display The theory that would not die : how Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy
title_full The theory that would not die : how Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy / Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, The theory that would not die : how bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy [electronic resource] / Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
title_short The theory that would not die :
title_sort theory that would not die how bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy
title_sub how bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down russian submarines, and emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy
topic Bayesian statistical decision theory History, MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis, Mathematics / History & Philosophy, Methode van Bayes, Political science, SCIENCE / History, Science / History
topic_facet Bayesian statistical decision theory, History, Methode van Bayes, Political science, SCIENCE / History